Live Trend Analysis with Brian Shannon (09/01/10)

Original Article from Chart.ly Blog

Read more articles from Chart.ly Blog

Venture, Angel or Private Placement?

Original Article from The Reformed Broker

Seems like there is funding in the private company space once again; virtually everywhere you look these days, deals are happening.  With that in mind, I thought I’d put together this quick guide for understanding the various types of funding and investing options that are out there.

Good luck and be careful, intrepid investors!

Read more articles from The Reformed Broker

Op-Ed: I’m Calling for $50 Trillion in New Stimulus

Original Article from The Reformed Broker

Reading Paul Krugman’s latest op-ed, in which he declares himself Smartest Man Alive for his calls in early 2009 about the need for big and bold stimulus, I can’t help but feeling that the professor does not go far enough.

You see, in his piece The Real Story, Krugman picks on conservatives and all levels of Austerians for being obstructionist in their opinions back when the size of the stimulus plan was being decided.  The fact that Obama couldn’t create private sector employment if his administration depended on it (it might) tells Krugman that it is only an issue of stimulus size, rather than shape or constitution, that has led to our failure to truly recover.

I have been very consistent on this site for two years now about the fact that it is the TYPE of stimulus that has been wrong all along, I’ve not yet weighed in on the SIZE of it.  But since Krugman’s opened the door with his renewed calls for “boldness”, I’ll bite.  Here goes…

When the President addresses the nation this week with his pre-midterms new stimulus Hail Mary pass, I don’t want to hear about deliberate or even responsible spending.  I want that crazy crazy, nahmean?  I’m looking for intergalactic dollar amounts.  No more half-steppin – time to drop a nuclear bomb on the anthill.

I am publicly calling for $50 trillion in stimulus.  And I want it now.

How do I arrive at that figure?

For starters, it ain’t even real money anymore.  For all the talk of “printing presses”, I go 4 or 5 days at a time without even touching a filthy paper bill.  I bought a Kit Kat yesterday with a Discover Card.  For serious.  It’s all fake money anyway.

The difference between another $1 trillion and $50 trillion is like the difference between how Tiger’s ex will live based on whether she got $100 mil or $750 mil in the divorce.  There’s no difference at all really.

Here’s something else to consider – no one in this country (or their kids or their grandkids) is ever actually going to be paying it back anyway.  Who the hell do we even owe this money to?  Last I heard, one branch or department of the government was making loans to another part of the government with Wall Street banks in the middle laundering it and exacting their commission.  What’s wrong with the refinancEES refinancing the refinancERS?  When the debtors are the creditors are the debtors, who even bothers trying to unravel that pretzel?

I don’t know what you people are all worked up over, a trillion, a few trillion, a lot of trillions, what’s the difference at this point?  Let’s have a stimulus bill so gargantuan that 600,000 people have to be hired just to proofread it.

Whatever, let it rip.  $50 trillion, Barack.  Go big.

Read more articles from The Reformed Broker

Going with a Hunch

Original Article from Chart.ly Blog

__________
I am buying a 3/4 long position in $TQNT. The chart looks to have built a nice base over the past few weeks, and is now above all major moving averages. The firm is also a supplier for many key $AAPL products, as well as some other smartphones.
All trades are timestamped inside The PPT.
__________

__________
TOTAL PORTFOLIO:
EQUITIES: [...]

Read more articles from Chart.ly Blog

Factchecking the Democratic Leadership on Jobs

Original Article from Fox Business EMac’s Stock Watch

 

Time to fact check the Democratic leadership’s claims on job growth, given the smoke bombs being set off in this debate as the midterm elections loom.

 

First, the data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued a press release on the new unemployment numbers showing U.S. employers cut 54,000 jobs in August.

The unemployment rate, calculated using a separate household survey, edged up to 9.6% from 9.5% as more job seekers entered the labor force, versus the peak of 10.1% in October 2009. July payrolls were revised to a loss of 54,000 from an original estimate of a 131,000 drop.

Private-sector companies added 67,000 jobs, following an upwardly revised 107,000 gain in July. Manufacturers shed 27,000 jobs, after adding 34,000 the previous month.

Economists now attribute a chunk of the decline in the jobless rate to 9.6% versus 10.1% in October ’09 to the 1.4 million people who left labor force since May. Add in 1.4 million people, and the jobless rate zooms higher to 10.3%, says Miller Tabak strategist Dan Greenhaus.

Deutsche Bank also says the private sector created a net total of 689,000 jobs since November 2009, the point when the jobs picture turned positive. That 689,000 is anemic compared to the 8.5 million private jobs lost in the downturn, Deutsche says, noting too that monthly private sector job creation is trending down.

Now to fact checking the claims—Fox News analyst James Farrell has a go at it:

“We will have job growth of 250,000 to 500,000 a month.”

- Claim: In an April 23, 2010 fundraiser, Vice President Joseph Biden stated “Well, I’m here to tell you some time in the next couple of months we’re going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month.” 

FBN Fact check: What today’s BLS employment release stated: “Total nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (-54,000) in August.” <span style="color:

Read more articles from Fox Business EMac’s Stock Watch

Is America Becoming Too European?

Original Article from Fox Business Brian Sullivan

If you read one thing today, make it this opinion piece by a German economics professor.    He argues that the President’s policies are misguided and that we are at risk of losing what’s made America great.  

In sum, he says we are becoming “too European”

The piece was published in English in the German publication Der Spiegel and you can read it here.

Read more articles from Fox Business Brian Sullivan

EARLY LOOK: Corner Banging

Original Article from Hedgeye Blog

This note was originally published at 8am this morning, September 3, 2010. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
“Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did [...]

Read more articles from Hedgeye Blog

Hot Links: Summersong

Original Article from The Reformed Broker

Three more days of Summer ahead of us, then it’s Back To Skool, kids.  I don’t know about you guys, but I’m getting pumped for the fall…

Martin Scorsese’s HBO show about Atlantic City mobsters during Prohibition (Boardwalk Empire) is going to kick all our asses and Mario Batali just opened up Eataly on 23rd Street – a multi-floor, 50,000 square foot restaurant/market/foodhall/shrine to Italian cuisine.  Flannel shirts are coming back again this fall (which is cool ’cause I’m still fully loaded) and the gang from Arrested Development is back with a new series called Running Wilde on Fox (trailer).

Anyway, we’re not quite there yet, so let’s do the last weekday linkfest of the Summer.

Four important investing lessons from departing legend Stanley Druckenmiller.  (MercenaryTrader)

In case you missed this – James Saft’s We Are All Widows and Orphans Now was terrific.  (Reuters)

Hearing about Wall Street guys wearing makeup makes me want to go be a lumberjack in the Great North Woods.  (Dealbreaker)

Chess is looking to China and sees a possibly bullish inflection point for US equities.  (iBankCoin)

“Spend enough money and you can move the GDP up. Hire enough people and you can get unemployment down. It’s not that complicated.” LOL.  (DailyReckoning)

The economics of being The Situation.  (WallStCheatSheet)

Based on earnings yield (earnings divided by price) stocks are the cheapest they’ve been in a half century.  (MyBackPages)

Perhaps the most important question of all – Can the rest of the world continue to grow if the US stays flat?  (CuriousCapitalist)

Hilarious: Cancel FDIC insurance, that’ll get everybody spending cash again!  (Weakonomics)

Trader Leigh Drogen has is head in the sand, but here’s what he’s watching for.  (SurfView)

Too many economic indicators?  (AbnormalReturns)

The Yahoo! Tech Ticker message board is an Idiot Ghetto.  (TBP)

These non-traditional guitarists will seriously blow your mind, one by one.  Unbelievable.  (MentalFloss)

Read more articles from The Reformed Broker

Does The Higher Minimum Wage Hurt New Job Growth?

Original Article from Fox Business Brian Sullivan

Enough has already been written about the overall August payroll number for me to avoid the crowded commentary.

That said, the one aspect to the report that few seem to be focusing on is the impact of higher minimum wages on the job market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics release shows that unemployment among those most likely to take a minimum wage job – high school dropouts and teenagers – continues to be dramatically high and is on the rise for both groups from last month.

One year ago the unemployment rate among teens 16 to 19 years was 25.7%.  It’s now 26.3%.

And although the unemployment rate for those lacking a high school degree fell from 15.5% in August 2009 to ‘just’ 14% last month, it rose from July’s rate of 13.8%.  

The Federal minimum wage has risen three times in three years (from $5.85 per hour in 2007 to $7.25 today) after not seeing an increase in the previous ten years.

We can agree that those jobless numbers are staggeringly and unacceptably high.   We all also know how difficult it can be to live on minimum wage.  But while the jump in minimum pay may have added a few dollars to working family wallets, one wonders if its coming at the expense of adding new jobs by simply working current employees more per week.   It certainly seems that way from the data.

Compassion for a living wage is an important consideration, but so too should be making sure everyone who wants to work has the opportunity to find a job.

Read more articles from Fox Business Brian Sullivan

A BTE Jobs Number Before the Holiday

Original Article from The Reformed Broker

The rate of unemployment slows (future revisions permitting) and a much better than expected Non Farm Payrolls number hits The Street just before the long holiday weekend…

From MarketWatch:

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 54,000 last month, matching the level of revised losses recorded the previous month, the U.S. Labor Department said Friday. Economists had predicted a drop of 110,000. The unemployment rate, calculated using a separate household survey, edged up to 9.6%, as expected, after holding at 9.5% for previous two months.

It’s a tepid number (like all signs of this tepid recovery) but I guess it gives the bulls a chance to hold the line on this week’s constructive action in stocks, Dow futures up nicely as of this posting.

Source:

US Stock Futues Jump (MarketWatch)

Read more articles from The Reformed Broker

Next Page »